Economic Update examines impact of tariffs through Q2

The latest Economic Update video explores tariffs and their impact on the economy in the second quarter of 2025. America’s Credit Unions’ Chief Economist Curt Long also dives into the organization’s latest Economic and Credit Union Forecast. 

“While tariffs rose to historic levels over the past three months, it has not been as severe as initially announced in April,” Long said. “It was also reassuring that the administration dialed down the tariffs in response to financial volatility, showing it is not going to court disaster while pursuing trade policy goals.”

But while the outlook has improved, tariffs remain at the highest level since the 1930s, hiring has stabilized well below the pre-COVID pace, and consumers have slowed spending. 

The video also examines:

• The impact of H.R. 1, the budget reconciliation bill signed into law on July 4;
• Lowered odds of a recession by 2026; and
• Effects of slow wage growth, and lengthened average periods of unemployment versus slower labor force growth; and
• The chances of the Fed cutting interest rates in response to the latest data. 

The economic forecast, video, and other dashboards, data, and tools are available on America’s Credit Unions’ website.