Economic Update: Housing market in ‘recession’

The housing market is strained entering 2026, due to high prices and high mortgage rates. America’s Credit Unions Chief Economist Curt Long examines the current state of the market, plus what could be in store for the rest of the year, in this month’s Economic Update.

“There’s plenty of debate these days about macroeconomic conditions, and there are plenty of contradictions. The job market seems soft, but unemployment is still low. Consumer sentiment is poor, but households are still spending,” he said. “One of the few places in the economy we can speak about definitively is housing, and the picture there is not good.”

Long said the housing sector is in a recession, with sales down 20% since before COVID, construction declining, and no growth in homebuilding sector employment.

Through a detailed look at the apartment and single-family home markets and the latest on mortgage rates, Long shares what else credit unions should know about the market.